
Well we know that you can’t just go with the favorite with your 2011 Breeders’ Cup picks and on Saturday at 6:24pm on NBC, there will be a few longshots navigating near the front of the pack. TO HONOR AND SERVE may be peaking at just the right time for Bill Mott. The 11-1 shot comes off consecutive mile romps since stretching back out to 1-1/8th miles and, more noteworthy, ran faster in a 2-1/4th-length victory in the Pa. Derby than any other runner in here has ever gone at that distance, including morning-line favorite Uncle Mo and second-choice Harve de Grace. To Honor and Serve's only out-of-the-money finish in nine races is when the $575,000 colt was entered in a sprint. The Post 13 isn't as bad as one might think with a long run to the first turn. He has been the picture of perfect health and steady preps since arriving at Churchill Downs and Breeders’ Cup picks experts believe that this horse can make a splash this weekend.
HARVE DE GRACE (9/2) was my top pick until I carefully looked at To Honor and Serve's credentials. Havre de Grace is a nose shy of having won six in a row this year (losing only to Blind Luck) and destroyed the boys in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga similar to what Rachael Alexandra did two years ago. Trainer Larry Jones says she is the best he has ever had and that's saying something. My best play in terms of Breeders’ Cup betting lines would be a 10, 13 exacta box. I truly believe that Harve de Graca and To Honor and Serve will finish 1-2 in this race, but I’m still trying to guess the order.
SO YOU THINK (5/1), a champ in Australia, was shipped to Europe to flaunt his class and except for a fourth-place finish in the prestigious Arc de Triomphe, wasn't off exacta tickets in seven races there. He gets blinkers and Lasix for his first U.S. start. His best distance is this same 1-1/4th miles, but his 12-for-19 record has all been on the lawn. He's the X factor at Bodog Sportsbook, but I just don’t see this horse competing with the rest of this field. He will be starting out of the No.5 post, but I still expect him to get left behind after the first turn.
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Here’s a complete list of the most recent 2011 Breeders’ Cup Odds, courtesy of the best horse racing betting odds makers at BODOG Sportsbook
UNCLE MO (T. Pletcher) [7/2]
HAVRE DE GRACE (L. Jones) [9/2]
SO YOU THINK (A. O'Brien) [5/1]
FLAT OUT (C. Dickey) [13/2]
TO HONOR AND SERVE (W. Mott) [11/1]
GAME ON DUDE (B. Baffert) [12/1]
STAY THIRSTY (T. Pletcher) [14/1]
DROSSELMEYER (W. Mott) [20/1]
RULER ON ICE (K. Breen) [20/1]
HEADACHE (M. Maker) [33/1]
RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (K. McLaughlin) [33/1]
ICE BOX (N. Zito) [40/1]
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