There will be some contenders that are flying under the 2011 Preakness Stakes predictions radar and Mr. Commons is one of the main horses that fit the bill for this upcoming race. Mr. Commons developed rapidly this winter in California and continued his improving pattern by finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. Mr. Commons has only raced four times in his life, so more steady improvements are likely. The pressing style of this horse generally leads to a comfortable trip and he should be positioned within striking range of the pacesetters and in front of the deep closers in the Preakness. Having skipped the Kentucky Derby, Mr. Commons will almost certainly arrive in Baltimore fresh and ready for his first start in six weeks. That layover could mean that he is fresh or that he may be a bit rusty and the horse racing odds at Bodog.com are on the fence over which one as Mr. Commons is listed as a +1750 long-shot to win this race.

Trainer John Shirreffs is hardly won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo and has a reputation for showing up for the big races only when he has a horse that can run. The trainer of legendary horse, Zenyatta, has plenty of credibility and it is no question why that makes his horse a viable contender. There are a lot of people who are doubtful that Mr. Commons is good enough to compete with the nation’s top main-track 3-year-olds, though. None of Mr. Commons’ races on dirt this winter indicate otherwise, as his horse racing odds are less risky on grass.

His turf pedigree and his slow-early/fast-late running style suggest his future will be on something other than dirt. Mr. Commons can be a major player later this year when he switches surface, but the lightly raced colt falls short on class and speed in the Preakness. Although the pedigree is tilted to turf, some people believe that Mr. Commons proved he can win on dirt with his third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, but the first and second place finishers from that race ended up finishing 16th and 19th in the Kentucky Derby. He has lots of stamina in his family and should appreciate this distance, but I believe the dirt will be a problem for him.

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