After coughing up the lead late in the Derby, Shackelford will try to cash in on his Preakness Stakes odds and hold on to that lead as they cross the wire. He led a pack of 19 horses from the start until inside the eighth pole in the Kentucky Derby – more than 90 percent of the race – before tiring late to be fourth. That followed another fine front-running effort, albeit another losing one, when he set taxing fractions in the Florida Derby before being caught on the wire by Dialed In, the eventual Kentucky Derby favorite. Bodog.com has Shackelford listed as a 9-1 favorite to finish what he started at Churchill Downs. I really like his chances in a field of 14 horses and although the pace should be a bit faster than in the Derby, I’m confident that Shackelford can keep up.

Shackelford is hitting his peak and his progress hasn’t been so dramatic that a bounce would seem probable. Continued development seems more likely. Cutting back slightly in distance, from 1 1/4 miles in the Derby to 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness, could also be to his benefit. Since the Derby, Shackleford has trained with enthusiasm and is eating well, according to trainer Dale Romans, important considerations with a two-week turnaround from the Derby to the Preakness. I like his horse racing odds even better since he’ll be starting from the number-five post between Sway Away and Flashpoint. Shackleford is a part of all my exotic plays, and although I don’t think he’ll knock of the favorite, he will factor in the money.

There aren’t many weaknesses to this horse. He had his best trip in the Kentucky Derby. He broke well, and made the lead without difficulty, and set soft fractions when all the riders on the other speed horses surprisingly took back. With more speed in the Preakness, another favorable trip seems improbable. He is going to have to set or press quicker fractions, and, given his racing history, there is no taking back. All of his best races have come when he has either been on the lead or within a half-length of the leader, so the way he starts this race will be very important to his chances.

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