The head-to-head 2011 Kentucky Derby predictions get a little murky when dealing with two longshots like Pants On Fire and Santiva. The Kentucky Derby prop betting odds have Pants On Fire and Santiva at an even -115 odds to outperform each other on Saturday evening. Anna Napravnik, who will ride Pants On Fire, become a known commodity in 2005 and will race in her first Kentucky Derby on a horse that won the Louisiana Derby in March but is still at 20-1 odds at Bodog.com to be the outright winner of this race. Pants On Fire has drawn the 7th post and will have to deal with the overall favorite, Dialed In, from the moment the gates open up. Santiva's horse racing odds at 30-1 aren't any better and in the 12th post, he will have to deal with Master of Hounds on one side and Mucho Macho Man on the other. Look for Santiva's more experienced Jockey to win this matchup, especially if it is raining at race time, because the field will be sloppy without a doubt.

23 year-old, Napravnik hopes to become the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby. but she has already made some history. She's the first female jockey to win the Louisiana Derby and the Fair Grounds riding title, finishing first on 110 of her 482 mounts to decisively outpace the next closest competitor, James Graham (76 of 539). This is a horse that likes to get out front early, so avoiding traffic is going to be key. If they can get Pants on Fire out in space early on, it's going to take off and I'm not sure anyone can catch him. Stamina will be key and it will be interesting to see if this horse has what it takes to get it done on Saturday, but I'm backing Pants on Fire at -115 to outperform Santiva, although I feel neither of them will have a real impact at the finish line.

Santiva breezed a half-mile in :50 1/5 in preparation for the May 7 Kentucky Derby, a time that was the co-20th fastest of the day among 38 horses working that distance. Breezing over a track that had been sealed due to the large amount of rain that fell during a severe thunderstorm, Santiva posted fractional times of :13 3/5, :26 1/5, and :38 1/5 while galloping out five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 and six furlongs in 1:17 1/5. Santiva will be mounted by Shaun Bridgmohan, a Jamaican jockey that has plenty of experience, but Santiva was last seen finishing ninth at the Toyota Blue Grass in April. I don't see Santiva getting it done against most of the field, including Pants on Fire, who will finish far ahead in this matchup.

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