The Kentucky Derby odds in 2011 are as bunched up as possible and in a head to head matchup between two longshots, Decisive Moment and Stay Thirsty will battle it out to see which of the two can post a better finish in the 137th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Both of these contestants are carrying similar horse racing odds coming into the Derby. Stay Thirsty is a 30-1 odds favorite to win this race, while Decisive Moment is not far behind at 20-1 odds at Bodog.com. In their individual matchup however, Stay Thirsty is heavily favored at -160 betting odds to win this Kentucky Derby prop bet. Stay Thirsty will start from the 4th post and will be right next to Decisive Moment, who will be starting from the 5th post. You would think that the advantage would go to Decisive Moment and jockey Kerwin Clark because Stay Thirsty and his mount Ramon Dominguez will have to fend of Calvin Borel right out of the gate. Either way, I think both of these horses will fall off the pace, with the post position making the difference in favor of Stay Thirsty.

Stay Thirsty is dealing with some favorable history with the four-hole producing 10 winners in the Derby's history, but just two wins in the last 35 years. The colt's seventh place finish at the Florida Derby is still reason to worry. However, he should get a pass for that performance because of the hot and humid weather where he was seen sweating profusely before the start of the race. If we throw out that poor performance, all we have is his tremendous showing at the Gotham Stakes where he defeated Wood Memorial winner Toby's Corner. I’m taking Stay Thirsty at -160 odds to finish in the middle of the pack but ahead of Decisive Moment convincingly.

Decisive Moment posted a final Derby workout over the weekend at Churchill Downs and the colt, that has just two wins in eight starts for trainer Juan Arias, worked five furlongs in 1:01.40 on Friday. The son of With Distinction was the first Derby horse to arrive at Churchill Downs on March 28. Inexperience might be a problem for this horse, as Arias has never saddled a Derby starter, but he knows the colt's strong showing in the Delta Jackpot more than five months ago was no fluke. I still think Decisive Moment finishes near the back of the field in this one, so I’m sticking with Stay Thirsty.

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