In a 2011 Kentucky Derby picks math-up between serious contenders, Ar Char Charch vs Soldat is one of the more intriguing Kentucky Derby prop bet available. Both of these hoses come to the scene with some hype and they are both near the top of the horse racing odds board to be the outright winner of this race. Ar Char Charch is listed as a 10-1 favorite at Bodog.com, while Soldat is right behind him at 12-1. Alan Garcia, who will be riding Soldat, is a third generation jockey making his second Derby appearance. Garcia has as good of a chance to win the big race as does Jon Court, who will be boxed in with Ar Char Charch in the first post position. Soldat will be coming from the outside, starting from the 17th post, and figures to have a small advantage in terms of avoiding the traffic jams.

Those who discount this horse just because he drew the most dreaded spot in the gate should be warned. Yes, the post was a nuisance to Lookin At Lucky last year, but this son of Arch might be good enough to overcome that. Ar Char Charch is coming off an impressive win at the Arkansas Derby in what looked like the best of all of the prep races, and with the odds between him and Soldat listed at dead even, I'm taking Ar Char Charch at -115 to be the first of these two to finish the race. The post might be the downfall for Jon Court and company, but he will certainly factor in the top 3.

Soldat did win the competitive Fountain of Youth stakes in February, but he does not have a lot of experience on dirt tracks like the one at Churchill Downs, having run most of his races on turf. Even so, the Fountain of Youth was run on a similar track and Soldat had no trouble winning there. Soldat performed quite well on a rain-soaked track in January and he will certainly move up the list of favorites if it rains on Saturday. It has already been raining the last few weeks in Kentucky, so regardless of whether or not it rains on race day, conditions could be slippery from prior area storms. Soldat has proven he can race in bad conditions, but not against a field like this.

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