Free MLB Picks - Astros at Cubs: If you're looking for an afternoon - fun bet - then taking the Cubs SU over Houston should do the trick. The Astros and Cubs will tangle today in the rubber game of a mid-week series at Wrigley Field in Chicago starting at 2:20 pm ET. Chicago will give the ball to veteran Ted Lilly for this game. The lefthander owns a 9-8 record this season with a 3.35 ERA. Houston will counter with Felipe Paulino. Used mostly in reief in 2009, this righthander is currently 2-9 with a 6.96 ERA.

Sportsbetting.com lists the Cubs as -210 moneyline favorites versus the Astros while the total is currently OFF the Sportsbetting board. Astros backers are getting +190 moneyline odds as a road underdog.

While there is no such thing as a sure thing, the Cubs, on the arm of Lilly, increase the value of the -210 odds. Lilly has notched three consecutive solid starts since his return from the disabled list on Aug. 17. He is 0-1 but has posted a 1.86 ERA in that stretch. In his last start, Lilly gave up two runs on six hits in 7 1/3 innings against the Mets for his 17th quality start in 22 outings this season. He has a quality start in all 10 of his outings at Wrigley Field and a 1.92 ERA there. Against the Astros, Lilly has a 3.57 ERA in three appearances this season, all in Houston.

For Houston, Paulino will make his first start since July 3, when he gave up nine hits and nine runs (eight earned) in two innings in a 13-0 loss to the Giants. He's been relegated to bullpen duty since, mostly in mop-up roles. With a fastball near 100-mph, Paulino's time to prove himself might be running out, if the recent comments made by general manager Ed Wade were any indication. Wade said Paulino needs to take advantage of every chance he gets to pitch, and this start could loom large for his career with the Astros.