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Miami Dolphins vs San Diego Chargers Week 4 NFL Predictions

by Jonathan Pou on Sunday, October 2nd, 2011

The 2-1 San Diego Chargers await the arrival of the 0-3 Miami Dolphins as they take the excruciating flight across the country in hopes of a week 4 NFL predictions upset, which would also be their first of the season. On paper, this isn’t much of a matchup, as the Dolphins feature the third worst pass defense in the league, giving up an average of 311 yards per game, while the Chargers have the sixth best passing attack, averaging 320 YPG. I see Miami having a hard time against San Diego today at 4:00pm ET on CBS and unfortunately, I am pretty sure that Miami will leave San Diego at 0-4 heading into their bye week and many football picks betting experts agree with that notion.

The advantage clearly goes to the Chargers in this game, as Miami’s 258 YPG passing average ranks 14th in the league, while San Diego’s pass defense ranks ninth, allowing 203 YPG. Most of the week 4 NFL predictions that I have come across are not even giving Miami a slight chance in this game and the only way that the Chargers will get upset is if they don’t take this game too seriously. The week 4 NFL spreads at most offshore sportsbooks have the Chargers favored by a touchdown in this game, but although the Dolphins have been tough in their three losses so far; this game is going to be torture on Tony Sparano’s club.

Both teams have similar stats defending the rush. Miami gives up 104.7 YPG (16th), while San Diego gives up 111.3 (19th). Both teams have surrendered just one rushing touchdown all year and neither team has forced a fumble. But something tells me that the Chargers will have a lot more opportunities to run the ball on Sunday. The Dolphins have the seventh best rushing attack, averaging 129.7 YPG, while the Chargers are ranked 16th with 97.3 YPG and at first glance, the edge would seem to go to the Dolphins. However, Miami has scored just one rushing touchdown, while fumbling four times. The Chargers have scored four rushing touchdowns and fumbled just once and because Daniel Thomas will not play for Miami this week, the edge clearly goes to Ryan Mathews and the Chargers, which is why I am jumping on the Chargers’ NFL odds at Bodog Sportsbook this weekend.

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Week 4 NFL Spreads
Dolphins +7.5 (-120), Over 45 (-110), Money Lines +255
Chargers -7.5 (Even), Under 45 (-110), Money Lines -310